Wondering about Space Weather Apps.

Lately I have been seriously doubting the validity of space weather apps or propagation apps. It seems that when there is a contest on a given band the propagation or conditions for that particular band sky rocket.
Is this really the cause of ideal conditions or are they just reporting the activity on a given band? To me it seems to be the later. I casually participate in contests and the contest I recently worked was the arrls 10 meter contest. I decided to work phone only. It was rather difficult to find and work contacts even though yes their were some pile ups especially on some rather unique or rare contacts ie...W1AW centennial contest stations. However it seemed the contacts were not as many as I would have thought. QRN noise was about an S5 on my meter. Anyways I checked my app. On my smart phone to what the propagation was reported as. You guessed it 10 meters was peaked out to the top while the other bands were rock bottom.
My thoughts are propagation actually effect all bands in one way or another. Anyways just an observation I made.